Moderna looks to new COVID booster, RSV shot to curb falling sales

Sales of the company’s COVID-19 vaccine plummeted 94% year over year. But executives believe newer products can help revenue rebound.

Moderna became one of the biotechnology sector’s most valuable companies after successfully developing a COVID vaccine. Shares peaked at nearly $450 in early 2021 as its shot quickly became one of the industry’s most lucrative products.

But Moderna has lost much of its value as demand for its COVID shot has cooled amid lower case counts and fewer bulk government purchases. Rival Pfizer faces the same issues. As a result, investors are increasingly focused on which of Moderna’s future products can fill the gap.

Moderna, for its part, still anticipates COVID shot revenue will meet its expectations. Its vaccine has generated about $2.1 billion so far this year, in line with earlier projections. The lower second quarter numbers were “in line with our expectations given the seasonal nature” of the business, said Chief Commercial Officer Arpa Garay, on a conference call with analysts.

Moderna is looking to the fall season to cover the bulk of its remaining forecast, pointing to the expected availability of an updated booster shot that’s under regulatory review. The company is anticipating another $2 billion from previously announced advance purchase agreements, and between $2 billion to $4 billion in additional sales for deliveries in the second half of the year.

But executives hedged those numbers, noting the difficulty in predicting vaccine uptake given the shots have now moved to the commercial market. Additionally, the amount from advance purchase agreements is lower than Moderna previously predicted, due to deferrals in certain countries, noted Jefferies analyst Michael Yee.

Yee estimates commercial market sales in the U.S. could reach $1.5 billion in the fall and winter.

The company’s RSV shot is also a key part of its future projections. Moderna began submitting approval applications in July, and plans to use a priority review voucher to speed up its evaluation in the U.S. It’s expected to reach market in early 2024, though, one season behind rival vaccines from Pfizer and GSK.